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A lot of discussion regarding new Transformers revolves around "when". As soon as a figure is leaked, teased, or announced, the question is, when will it be available for preorder, when will it be available online, when will it be available in stores, etc. Some fans make logical guesses based on announced release dates, seasonal buying patterns, etc., but it's not an exact science, right?

Strictly speaking, there's too many variables involved in a toy's design, manufacture, shipping, and stocking to make it an exact science, but how would you feel about a little inexact science?

Hypothetically speaking (and I mean that in the non-scientific sense), assuming a person has access to years of news articles recording when given toys were first announced, first previewed, first found, and so forth, a person could possibly use content analysis to quantify the information in those articles, build a database that summarizes details relevant to tracking a toy from announcement to procurement, and use the trends in that data to build a regression model that predicts (inexactly) when new toys will make it to stores based on dates they were announced, teased, etc.

Hypothetically speaking (again, in the non-scientific sense), is that a novelty people would be interested in playing with if someone did all of that? Or does it just sound like a stupid waste of time?

Well frankly it seems like it's a little bit of both. I think it would nice to have a more quantified answer for, "When will this figure be released?". However, it's not info I am dying to know bc updates on release dates come through in due enough time, relatively speaking.

Ultimately, I think I small application of chill for when we as collectors read about an upcoming figure can go a long way.

No disrespect is meant here, just my thoughts on the idea.

Caelus wrote:Or does it just sound like a stupid waste of time?

Stupid, no. Waste of time, yes.

So much of "release" timing comes down to a complicated supply chain involving stuff on boats, stuff on planes, stuff on trucks, arbitrary order amounts from retail buyers, distribution amounts based on prior sales for certain classifications of stores, random decision making, and sometimes even just lazy retail employees that you'll never make anything with any semblance of true predictability. Could you slowly build up a bunch of data, or mine old data, and get some predictability with an r-value over say, .8? Probably that at best, but that doesn't seem super strong.

Best way to guess when stuff will be released: watch for when Robot Kingdom gets it, actually. That means it's left the factory and is working its way through the supply chain, and given the time of year and sometimes other factors, it'll be between 1-6 weeks when it shows up in stock online or at retail.

God bless Takara for having actual release dates, although those shift quite a bit themselves

I just ask vendors who order from hasbro at Frank and Son whenever I need to know the release date of something

LegendaryAntiHero wrote:I just ask vendors who order from hasbro at Frank and Son whenever I need to know the release date of something

That's cool, but only applies to those in the Southern California region if I'm accurately remembering where Frank and Son's flea market is.