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Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man

Posted by william-james88 Jun 9, 2023 at 11:00pm CDT 29,455 views
The Transformers live action franchise has gone through a lot of ups and downs in the past 16 years. It was once a billion dollar box office champion, but as of late it is unclear if it can still get back to those glory days. While Bumblebee was a critical darling (the Rotten Tomatoe score has a higher percentage for critics liking it than fans), it didn't bring that much at the box office. That didn't matter as much since the film cost a lot less than previous Transformers movies but now, with Rise of the Beasts, the budget has literally doubled from 100M to 200M, so the Studio is expecting a big return. And it's unclear if they will get it.

It is not even clear if Rise of the Beasts will be the number one movie in the US during its opening week-end, with sites like Deadline reporting predictions of similar numbers in the 50M range for both Into the Spider-verse and Transformers Rise of the Beasts.

However, while Transformers Rise of the Beasts has tough competition in the US, Deadline also calculates that it will be the number 1 film worldwide, predicting 155M worldwide. While that number is big, this film needs to be front loaded due to it being sandwiched between Spider-Man and the Flash (well, more like Keaton's Batman), which is quite the coincidence since this happened with Bumblebee back in 2018 which also had to deal with the previous Spider-verse and a DC property (Aquaman). It's really up in the air though with big factors like word of mouth, and China's box office, that will determine if this film succeeds at the box office or not. You'll let us know what you think and we'll come back Sunday evening with the actual numbers to see how accurate these predictions were and who was the champion of the US box office.

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Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by william-james88 Jun 10, 2023
While fans can loathe critic scores till the cows come home, they haven't shown to have much of an impact on box office success. For the Transformers franchise, it's even an inverse relation at times. And this can be said for the box office at large. A better predicter for success is Cinemascore. This is basically the equivalent to word of mouth but through standardized surveys. These have become almost binary even though they are on a gradient.

Basically, films with strong word of mouth get As and the ones that that don't have that get Bs and anything below is dead on arrival, when it comes to big budget films. Most Marvel films in the past have gotten at least an A-, but that changed in phase 4 where Eternals and the latest films from the Doctor Strange, Ant-man and Thor franchises have gotten a B+ or less. Well, Transformers Rise of the Beasts has scored an A- Cinemascore and that is excellent news. It beats out all those Marvel films we mentioned as well as The Last Knight which had a B+.

This was posted by the actual Cinemascore group on Twitter.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by -Kanrabat- Jun 11, 2023
I went to see the movie yesterday but I was surprised to see that the room are barely 2/3 full. Granted, it was for the 4:30PM showing, but still.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by william-james88 Jun 11, 2023
-Kanrabat- wrote:I went to see the movie yesterday but I was surprised to see that the room are barely 2/3 full. Granted, it was for the 4:30PM showing, but still.


My showing at 3:30 had 10 people total
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by -Kanrabat- Jun 11, 2023
william-james88 wrote:
-Kanrabat- wrote:I went to see the movie yesterday but I was surprised to see that the room are barely 2/3 full. Granted, it was for the 4:30PM showing, but still.


My showing at 3:30 had 10 people total


Maybe the rooms are truly full at night after 6PM. :-?
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by chuckdawg1999 Jun 11, 2023
william-james88 wrote:While fans can loathe critic scores till the cows come home, they haven't shown to have much of an impact on box office success. For the Transformers franchise, it's even an inverse relation at times. And this can be said for the box office at large. A better predicter for success is Cinemascore. This is basically the equivalent to word of mouth but through standardized surveys. These have become almost binary even though they are on a gradient.

Basically, films with strong word of mouth get As and the ones that that don't have that get Bs and anything below is dead on arrival, when it comes to big budget films. Most Marvel films in the past have gotten at least an A-, but that changed in phase 4 where Eternals and the latest films from the Doctor Strange, Ant-man and Thor franchises have gotten a B+ or less. Well, Transformers Rise of the Beasts has scored an A- Cinemascore and that is excellent news. It beats out all those Marvel films we mentioned as well as The Last Knight which had a B+.

This was posted by the actual Cinemascore group on Twitter.


This is solely my own armchair analysis but since I started reviewing movie toys with Age of Extinction, I have noticed a gradual but steady decline in interest as well as shorter windows of interest. As it is with ROTB, I'm not getting close to the views I did with Bumblebee movie toys which were far, far bellow TLK and AOE.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by FiddlerUndone Jun 11, 2023
-Kanrabat- wrote:
william-james88 wrote:
-Kanrabat- wrote:I went to see the movie yesterday but I was surprised to see that the room are barely 2/3 full. Granted, it was for the 4:30PM showing, but still.


My showing at 3:30 had 10 people total


Maybe the rooms are truly full at night after 6PM. :-?


I went to a 6:10 showing last night with two friends. It was just us and two other people. Looked like everyone was going to Across the Sipder-verse. I'm rural, maybe it's doing better in cities?
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by Sabrblade Jun 11, 2023
FiddlerUndone wrote:
-Kanrabat- wrote:
william-james88 wrote:
-Kanrabat- wrote:I went to see the movie yesterday but I was surprised to see that the room are barely 2/3 full. Granted, it was for the 4:30PM showing, but still.


My showing at 3:30 had 10 people total


Maybe the rooms are truly full at night after 6PM. :-?


I went to a 6:10 showing last night with two friends. It was just us and two other people. Looked like everyone was going to Across the Sipder-verse. I'm rural, maybe it's doing better in cities?
I saw the movie on Friday, June 9, at 6:15pm. The room was full of people. From annoying little kids to middle-aged beer-drinkers. Nearly every seat in the room was filled, and it was one of the building's larger theater rooms.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by Stormshot_Prime Jun 11, 2023
Theater occupation is always going to vary across locations, but man here in Denver , theaters were packed all weekend for the movie! Was going to see an early screening Wednesday but we were SOL. Saw it Friday in a full theater at 7:45, packed to the brim! Whether you like it or not, this film will undoubtedly have a net positive impact on the future of the franchise (I loved it too much, but that could’ve been the beer talking).
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by DeathReviews Jun 11, 2023
Well these days, “better than recent Marvel films” isn’t exactly shooting for the moon, is it? ;)
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by -Kanrabat- Jun 11, 2023
DeathReviews wrote:Well these days, “better than recent Marvel films” isn’t exactly shooting for the moon, is it? ;)


Ouch...
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by D-Maximal_Primal Jun 11, 2023
When I saw the movie Friday night, there were about 12 people total, but it was a 4:00 showing on a Friday in a small town.

I went yesterday at 6:00 in the city, sold out.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by crazyfist Jun 11, 2023
I went to an 11:00 am showing on Friday and there were only 6 people there. But I'm sure that was because kids were still in school and most people still at work. But it was just perfect. Didn't have to worry about a bunch of people talking or on their phones or just ruining the experience. I had a great time. Fun movie. Definitely top 3 for me. ;)^
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by william-james88 Jun 11, 2023
Stormshot_Prime wrote:Theater occupation is always going to vary across locations, but man here in Denver , theaters were packed all weekend for the movie! Was going to see an early screening Wednesday but we were SOL. Saw it Friday in a full theater at 7:45, packed to the brim! Whether you like it or not, this film will undoubtedly have a net positive impact on the future of the franchise (I loved it too much, but that could’ve been the beer talking).


It definitely will, it will also make Primal a household name to kids, which is awesome. Working on a few articles at the moment, lots of good news and goodies coming your way.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by william-james88 Jun 11, 2023
We at Seibertron have some fun goodies for you. Hasbro sent out these colouring pages to retailers and we have scanned them for you to print out. They include a maze, an easy unscramble codeword puzzle and a colouring page of Optimus Prime and Optimus Primal. The film is getting great reactions from families so if any of your kids want some more Transformers Rise of the Beasts themed activities, here you go, enjoy!

Image

Image

Image

Image
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by cloudballoon Jun 11, 2023
Why would I do the Rescue Maze puzzle if the bot at the Finish is Pablo? :-P

I shouldn't be too harsh on ROTB WJ though, seems like most people who saw the movie felt far less animity towards the character at the end. But I don't think I read anyone like him though.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by Sabrblade Jun 11, 2023
Oh, the irony of the character people are nicknaming "Pablo" being the one who calls out another character in the movie for being racist. :P
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by -Kanrabat- Jun 11, 2023
Sabrblade wrote:Oh, the irony of the character people are nicknaming "Pablo" being the one who calls out another character in the movie for being racist. :P


""Racist?" Really? But they are robots..." :???:
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by william-james88 Jun 11, 2023
crazyfist wrote:I went to an 11:00 am showing on Friday and there were only 6 people there. But I'm sure that was because kids were still in school and most people still at work. But it was just perfect. Didn't have to worry about a bunch of people talking or on their phones or just ruining the experience. I had a great time. Fun movie. Definitely top 3 for me. ;)^


Seems like a top 3 for most people, including myself. I just don't know if I'd place it above or below the 2007 film. This has more Transformers "stuff" in it, nut the 2007 film did a good job at presenting this world on a real setting. It's not the ideal format for a Transformers film but it's still a well realized vision.
Re: Predictions for Rise of the Beasts' Opening Week-end Show it Might Come in Second to Spider-man (view post)
Comment by YoungPrime Jun 11, 2023
.........Okay and the box-office?

Wow even I thought it would hit $100M this weekend domestically and then make a 60%-70% drop next weekend allowing Spiderverse to maintain the number 2 spot while Flash takes #1. Such is the way of studios that continue to make half-@ssed, poorly written action films surrounded by other possibly better action films this Summer... >:oP
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