Salazaar wrote:Because the average teenager is a self-conscious wreck. They blindly follow the "clique" system and popular culture and so on.
Ok, your points that there are teens out there who don't know anything about TF might be valid, except:
1) MTV spent three and half hours pimping TF for it's movie awards show. And you know MTV only shows a program one time.
2) Teens define pop culture, and as such, are online. Wasn't there some big upgrade that happened to Myspace a couple months ago? Oh yeah, cause of the TF movie profile.
3) For the teens that don't watch MTV (or any TV), some of their favorite bands are on the soundtrack. Why are The Used on the soundtrack and not Lion? Cause hair metal is teh suxxors.
But this is all irrelevant info...supposition, really. So here are some numbers, based on the number of times a particular term was used on Google, Yahoo, or MSN searches within the last 30 days:
(specific movie titles)
Die Hard 4 - 6257
fantastic four movie - 23436
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 - 23856
Transformers movie - 42577*
Spiderman 3 - 175,467
*some of these results have to be contaminated with searches for the animated film
(generic IP terms)
Die Hard - 52,181
Thundercats - 147,520 (for the sake of objectivity)
Pirates of the Caribbean - 234, 393
Fantastic Four - 632,927 (biggest surprise)
Transformers - 639,428*
Spiderman - 1,059, 506
*some of these results also have to be contaminated with searches for actual telephone pole transformers. Guessing about 20,000.
So, I'm going to guess that the initial market penetration for TF is about the same or a little better than Pirates 3, but not quite as big as Spider-man. Both of those movies suffered from poor word of mouth and a tired storyline (I liked Pirates, but who's counting?). F4 had lots of buzzkill going into the opening weekend. Galactus is a cloud? Yuck.
All the initial buzz for TF is positive. The FX are light years ahead of all the other standard action fare. Nobody has ever seen anything like this before. Remember the Matrix fared extremely well on word-of-mouth advertising long after the initial release date.
Gut feeling, if the buzz stays this positive, is a 125-150 million take on the opening weekend domestic, 100+ overseas, and trundling along with a 40% drop off for each of the next two weeks. By the end of July, we should be looking at a gross around 400 - 475 million.