The Energon Pub

What will go up in value? What are your predictions on the following?:

1) Clear glass deluxe Bumblebee?
2) Regular US version deluxe 74 Bumblebee?
3) Voyager Class Blackout? (if a Leader Class were to come out)
4) Ultimate Bumblebee?
5) Voyager Class Ironhide?
6) Deluxe 08 Bumblebee?

I'm trying to start a collection of high-value items, based on what's been trading for high value on ebay. It started when I found out my G1 Starscream was selling on ebay for $900 and up.

What are your predictions on what will go up in value?

ajy101 wrote:What will go up in value? What are your predictions on the following?:

1) Clear glass deluxe Bumblebee?
2) Regular US version deluxe 74 Bumblebee?
3) Voyager Class Blackout? (if a Leader Class were to come out)
4) Ultimate Bumblebee?
5) Voyager Class Ironhide?
6) Deluxe 08 Bumblebee?

I'm trying to start a collection of high-value items, based on what's been trading for high value on ebay. It started when I found out my G1 Starscream was selling on ebay for $900 and up.

What are your predictions on what will go up in value?

7) None of the above.

why do you think that? I mean who would have thought that a poorly made Starscream toy with 2 points of articulation would sell for $900? And you're saying that none of the above will go up? Why?

Thanks.

ajy101 wrote:It started when I found out my G1 Starscream was selling on ebay for $900 and up.

Is it crazy day?

Did I miss a memo or something?

Agreed,
They aren't rare to begin with, but in like 20 years or so, The movie figs that will fetch hefty prices, will be the ones with a still functioning automorph. That thing will break in all of them eventually. So it will be very hard to find one that actually works.

let's not go off topic here. Yes the G1 Starscream was selling with box and accessories for $900 and up. Do an ebay search and you can see some people selling a mint version for $1200 or more.

I don't know whether many people on these forums care about value (no-one seems to talk much about it) - but I like to collect the ones that everyone wants and it's hard to find, which by definition will go up in value.

Surely someone with some sense of the value of collectibles can give an educated guess whether any of the aforementioned toys will go way up in value? Some of the points to consider is for how long a particular toy will be made and how many are out there compared with demand. Thanks.

ajy101 wrote:why do you think that? I mean who would have thought that a poorly made Starscream toy with 2 points of articulation would sell for $900? And you're saying that none of the above will go up? Why?

Thanks.

Why? The volume of movie toys being produced vs. the G1 toys produced is 100000:1.

Overcracker wrote:Agreed,
They aren't rare to begin with, but in like 20 years or so, The movie figs that will fetch hefty prices, will be the ones with a still functioning automorph. That thing will break in all of them eventually. So it will be very hard to find one that actually works.

that's assuming they are played with. I don't play with toys any more, so mine will be in mint condition. Heck, even my old toys from 20 years ago are in mint condition. I won't have any problem with that. I like the idea of owning something of collectible value, even though I may not ever sell it.

It's fascinating to observe ebay trends and analyze why one particular toy is so valuable compared with another. Who knew that Starscream was the third most popular transformer after Optimus and Megatron? I'm trying to apply the same principles to try and figure out what will be popular now.

Some of the things I figured out are:
1) The quintessential version of a toy in the same period, is the most valuable (eg. Leader Class OP vs Voyager Class)
2) The original release toys have more value
3) The characters that display the most character or coolness or screen-time in a show/movie have more value

Here's my thought - if you think something is valuable, get two. One for display/play, one for the closet.

I'm planning on getting a second Leader Class OP to keep MISB, so that all the accessories are there, it's got the box, it's never opened, never touched, the instructions are there, and MOST important, the automorph works.

Get a financial planner.

There are far better things to invest in.

^ Like APPL and GOOG. ^_^

JTKranix wrote:
Why? The volume of movie toys being produced vs. the G1 toys produced is 100000:1.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but just wondering why some toys are already selling for more on ebay. They are also much harder to find in the stores.

For example, the stores I go to are always filled with Jazz and other toys that aren't featured in the movies, but are always missing Leader Class Optimus Prime.

So obviously there is a supply/demand problem.

Are you thinking that over time, the supply will outbalance demand, and right now we are just observing a temporary surge in demand that will soon disappear and that they will continually produce so many of these toys that there will be plenty of supply?

A good example to analyze, if someone has the data is the Deluxe 74 Bumblebee. When it first came out, were ebay sellers selling them at ballooned prices and were stocks of it very low in the stores? Because right now, it's quite easy to find a 74 Bumblebee and the prices are low. If initially the prices were high on ebay, then that would support what you are saying.

Right now, the prices are sky high (x2 the price minimum, sometimes up to $120) on a Deluxe 08 Bumblebee, and I'm wondering if ebay prices on these will eventually drop to $15 or less. I find these generally good indicators whether these toys will be rare in future.

thanks.

thanks.

JTKranix wrote:

ajy101 wrote:why do you think that? I mean who would have thought that a poorly made Starscream toy with 2 points of articulation would sell for $900? And you're saying that none of the above will go up? Why?

Thanks.

Why? The volume of movie toys being produced vs. the G1 toys produced is 100000:1.

Plus, you have to consider the fact that the speculator factor didn't pop up until the mid-90s so most people weren't collecting based on projected value when G1 was around. Therefore, there are now much higher ratio being tucked away by people thinking they'll be able to put their kids through college with toys.

Also, the reason most people don't discuss value here is because most people here are collecters and, as such, very much dislike speculators. Personally, I don't like them because they almost destroyed the comic book industry shortly after I got serious about reading comics.

ajy101 wrote:

JTKranix wrote:
Why? The volume of movie toys being produced vs. the G1 toys produced is 100000:1.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but just wondering why some toys are already selling for more on ebay. They are also much harder to find in the stores.

For example, the stores I go to are always filled with Jazz and other toys that aren't featured in the movies, but are always missing Leader Class Optimus Prime.

So obviously there is a supply/demand problem.

Are you thinking that over time, the supply will outbalance demand, and right now we are just observing a temporary surge in demand that will soon disappear and that they will continually produce so many of these toys that there will be plenty of supply?

A good example to analyze, if someone has the data is the Deluxe 74 Bumblebee. When it first came out, were ebay sellers selling them at ballooned prices and were stocks of it very low in the stores? Because right now, it's quite easy to find a 74 Bumblebee and the prices are low. If initially the prices were high on ebay, then that would support what you are saying.

Right now, the prices are sky high (x2 the price minimum, sometimes up to $120) on a Deluxe 08 Bumblebee, and I'm wondering if ebay prices on these will eventually drop to $15 or less. I find these generally good indicators whether these toys will be rare in future.

thanks.

thanks.

They are hard to find because wave 3 just started showing up in stores last week. 3 weeks from now, they will be everywhere. The people who pay insane rates for them on eBay just want to have them first.

Counterpunch wrote:Get a financial planner.

There are far better things to invest in.

this is not about investment. This is about collecting things of value. Are you telling me that it wouldn't be cool to own original copies of certain high-value things that you appreciate?

God Magnus wrote:Also, the reason most people don't discuss value here is because most people here are collecters and, as such, very much dislike speculators. Personally, I don't like them because they almost destroyed the comic book industry shortly after I got serious about reading comics.

there's more than one motivation to collect. a person may collect things that he perceives will go up in value, not because he intends to sell, but because they are rare samples of objects he appreciates.

ajy101 wrote:

Counterpunch wrote:Get a financial planner.

There are far better things to invest in.

this is not about investment. This is about collecting things of value. Are you telling me that it wouldn't be cool to own original copies of certain high-value things that you appreciate?

It is and I do. However, the "high-value" toys I have are rare and none of them had anywhere near the production numbers of the movie toys.

I don't see the movie toys being worth what the G1 toys are now, 23 years from now.

ajy101 wrote:

Counterpunch wrote:Get a financial planner.

There are far better things to invest in.

this is not about investment. This is about collecting things of value. Are you telling me that it wouldn't be cool to own original copies of certain high-value things that you appreciate?

You're asking if I am impressed by how much I can pay for or how much I can make someone pay for something?

No, not really. The value is an impediment to owning something of interest.

JTKranix wrote:
It is and I do. However, the "high-value" toys I have are rare and none of them had anywhere near the production numbers of the movie toys.

I don't see the movie toys being worth what the G1 toys are now, 23 years from now.

Interesting. Maybe you're right. The G1 original toys are different because they were the original that spawned the cartoon that spawned the movie that spawned the movie toys, whereas the movie toys are at the tail end of the spectrum. Thanks!

Counterpunch wrote:You're asking if I am impressed by how much I can pay for or how much I can make someone pay for something?

No, not really. The value is an impediment to owning something of interest.

I see I have been a bit foolish then in some of my zealous collecting spree endeavours. Overall I did well, but there's one purchase in particular that I over-payed, which now I regret (as I can get it much cheaper at the moment).

Still I guess I can learn right now and prevent myself from making further mistakes. Thanks.

I have to agree with Counterpunch. I mean i collect these things because i like them, i like to fiddle around with them. Transform them, not because I'm looking to make a poor naive bastard pay through the nose for them in 20 years. Or because i just like to stare at them in there boxes.

It would be like buying a CRT television now, and keep it in a box for 20 years to sell it at an exorbitant price when there are no more CRT TV's because we will watch TV in Hologram generators or something.

These things are meant to be used. They are toys, its not like a piece of artwork you only look at to enjoy, or a sculpture, they go up in value because they are appealing to see. Transformers will go up in value if they are appealing look at and to transform, or they evoke a feeling of when you had them as a child and transformed them, and want to do it again.

You may want to keep it MISB, but I guarantee most of the people that will buy it, will most likely take it out of the box to transform it and pose it etc...

Like today, when you buy an original G1 toy, you want to take it out and transform it gain. you do it very carefully, but you do it, because you want to remember what it felt like to hold it in your hands.

ajy101 wrote:that's assuming they are played with. I don't play with toys any more, so mine will be in mint condition. Heck, even my old toys from 20 years ago are in mint condition. I won't have any problem with that. I like the idea of owning something of collectible value, even though I may not ever sell it.

Just because you don't doesn't mean 5 million other TF owners don't either. Out of those 5 million toys how many do you think will keep their functional automorph in 20 years. And if yours is the only one that works well then the prices are sure to go up, don't you think?


sorry, I think I ranted a little too much.

ajy101 wrote:

Counterpunch wrote:Get a financial planner.

There are far better things to invest in.

this is not about investment. This is about collecting things of value. Are you telling me that it wouldn't be cool to own original copies of certain high-value things that you appreciate?

I want to put something in here, somewhat out of guilt...

There are several G1 boxed (mostly AFA graded) Starscreams which have sold for between 900 and 1400 dollars. I didn't previously believe that a Starscream would sell for that.

That being said, I stand by my statement about why we have these toys. Value increases are simply a bothersome side effect we have to deal with. Increased value does nothing for me personally (where toys are concerned). I would be happy if all the Fort, Brave, and Grand Maximus toys out there cost $100 a piece. It won't happen and that has to be realized, but if I had a preference, it would be open to everyone. (Some might think this runs contrary to my harsh statements about the affordability of the BotCon set, but it does not. What I would like and the reality of the situation are two different things.)

It probably has to do with the fact that if I had to consider selling these things for their accrued value, it would mean that my life was falling apart and I needed money.

I think the Leader class Optimus Prime and the Ultimate Bumblebee will be very valuable. Especially if all their bells and whistles as someone pointed out are still functioning, it also wouldn't hurt to have the box as well (which I plan to keep).

I don't know about the Leader class Megatron. I just don't know.

I think I understand a little where Ajy101 is coming from. For myself, I'm also pretty curious as to which ones I bought will go up in value, just so that I know. For me it's not so much I can hope that I will sell it down the road for hundreds of dollars, but simply knowing that I have something worth a lot of money gives me some sense of satisfaction, even when I will never sell it out of sentiment.

For example I still have some vintage Star Wars action figures, the entire Masters of the Universe (except Soceress and Horde Trooper... who knew right?) and G1 Transformer toys that are worth a lot, that I don't play with, but which I will never part with because they are a part of my childhood.

If i ever reached a stage where I thought of selling them for money, then I consider myself pretty much a failure in the other aspects of my Life. Of course I believe that there are probably speculators who do pretty well, but these days more and more speculators hoping to make a buck buying everything in sight is precisely why they probably won't go up much in value, except for limited edition items like the Masterpieces. The same with Modern art or any other investment product in which there is no true intrinsic value.

Good point bonecrusher.